NFL 4th down coach tendencies
What will your team's head coach do on 4th down?
Most 4th down tools tell you the mathematically optimal call. This one tells you what a specific coach is actually likely to do, based on their real history, not what a model thinks they should do.
How to use this
Start with a coach and a situation. Open the predictor, pick a coach, and set the down, distance, score, and clock. You'll see what the model thinks they'll actually do, next to that coach's career habits and the league average.
For the bigger picture, browse every coach's tendencies side by side, or check the findings page for what's changed leaguewide since 2010.
Predict a call
Set up a situation and a coach, see the model's real prediction next to that coach's career tendency and the league baseline.
Try the predictor →Browse coaches
Every NFL head coach's real 4th down tendency, ranked by aggression, filterable to who's currently on the sideline.
See the full list →See the findings
Leaderboards, situational splits, and how the league's aggressiveness has changed since 2010.
Explore the findings →